Thursday, March 11, 2010

Reyes, More Nathan, Challenge Reminder

It seems fairly certain now that Jose Reyes is not going to be ready to go by opening day, this according to an article on the MLB website published just a couple of hours ago.  The problem with a condition such as he's facing is that there never really is a specific timeline given for a return and he was already facing a comeback from a fairly serious extended absence and injury.  Even without the benefit of a timeline for his return, I do already plan to reduce his forecast to something closer to 120-125 games than the 145 we had previously published.

Though Joe Nathan is deferring a decision on whether to undergo season-ending surgery, it's looking increasingly unlikely that he pitches this season and in building his new forecast and revised versions for the likes of Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain, I'm currently going with about a 75% chance that Nathan doesn't pitch in 2010, meaning he still gets a forecast but not much of one.  I still don't see Crain as the new closer here but, if nothing else, his importance to the Twins goes up and his job security as a key arm out of the bullpen also improves.  It still wouldn't surprise me for the Twins to deal for someone who's closed out games more recently than any of the current candidates.

By the way, we already have almost a hundred people who volunteered to participate in my mock auction to test a new bidding method and we will be making the draw tomorrow with emails to go out to those selected by Monday.  With so many willing participants and only 14 spots available, obviously most will be disappointed but that's the nature of picking randomly from a large list.  If you'd like to be in the draw to be involved, be sure you send your email by 11:59 PM EST tonight as per the instructions published when I first talked about the idea.