Tuesday, February 09, 2010
If Sleepers Existed: Part 2
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Saturday, February 06, 2010
Hudson / Punto, G. Sizemore
At least a few readers were wondering whether the signing of Orlando Hudson by the Twins means that we will be reducing Nick Punto's forecast.
Much as we discussed the other day in this space about San Francisco bringing in Yorvit Torrealba and how we had already expected them to add extra catcher when we had published so few at bats for Nick Hundley, the same applies here to Punto in Minnesota. We had given Punto only 261 at bats in the previously published forecasts because we believed that the Twins would bring another infielder in to play second base. It's a real challenge in forecasting that sometimes, you need to give the current candidates the playing time in the absence of other options and in other cases, you just have to believe that certain teams are intent on bringing in another player before the season starts.
In some cases, we've gotten this right and in others, we've already been proven wrong and then adjust accordingly. For example, in our first forecast set, we guessed right on the Atlanta bullpen and decided not to give out the saves in the Atlanta bullpen, expecting they would add a new closer. They subsequently brought in Billy Wagner. However, in San Francisco, they played the market in a way we didn't expect and we then had to downgrade players like Buster Posey and others as they added veterans at positions we didn't expect they would be looking to fill.
On a completely separate matter, another reader had asked about Grady Sizemore and the "very risky" tag we've attached to his latest published forecast. In our previous set, we had published a projection for 552 at bats, a .280 average, 24 home runs, 101 runs scored, 85 RBI and 20 stolen bases. If he lives up to those expectations, that will be a quite valuable season for those in fantasy leagues.
The reason we must apply the "very risky" tag here is because he missed so much time last year and we're projecting numbers that are so much better than 2009. I hesitate to say this because I'm sure you could dig hard enough and find an exception but generally, any player who is projected by us to do something they haven't done in the majors in over a year or who is coming off an extended injury will almost certainly get at least a moderate to high risk in our ratings. Injuries can create risk because there is always the chance that a player does not return to being the player he was previously, no matter how seemingly minor the injury. A player misses a week with a mild hamstring strain and after he returns, constantly favors it in fear that he will re-injure himself and stops running as hard, for example. You don't see it with every injury but it does happen.
Beyond the recovery from surgery, Sizemore brings with him the additional problem that he wasn't as good as usual when he did play last year, especially in contrast to our expectations for him for the upcoming season. So, that's the short explanation of why we're tagging his 2010 forecast as very risky. If you can tolerate risk, they'll be nice numbers to have on your fantasy team if we end up even remotely close to his actual performance.
Much as we discussed the other day in this space about San Francisco bringing in Yorvit Torrealba and how we had already expected them to add extra catcher when we had published so few at bats for Nick Hundley, the same applies here to Punto in Minnesota. We had given Punto only 261 at bats in the previously published forecasts because we believed that the Twins would bring another infielder in to play second base. It's a real challenge in forecasting that sometimes, you need to give the current candidates the playing time in the absence of other options and in other cases, you just have to believe that certain teams are intent on bringing in another player before the season starts.
In some cases, we've gotten this right and in others, we've already been proven wrong and then adjust accordingly. For example, in our first forecast set, we guessed right on the Atlanta bullpen and decided not to give out the saves in the Atlanta bullpen, expecting they would add a new closer. They subsequently brought in Billy Wagner. However, in San Francisco, they played the market in a way we didn't expect and we then had to downgrade players like Buster Posey and others as they added veterans at positions we didn't expect they would be looking to fill.
On a completely separate matter, another reader had asked about Grady Sizemore and the "very risky" tag we've attached to his latest published forecast. In our previous set, we had published a projection for 552 at bats, a .280 average, 24 home runs, 101 runs scored, 85 RBI and 20 stolen bases. If he lives up to those expectations, that will be a quite valuable season for those in fantasy leagues.
The reason we must apply the "very risky" tag here is because he missed so much time last year and we're projecting numbers that are so much better than 2009. I hesitate to say this because I'm sure you could dig hard enough and find an exception but generally, any player who is projected by us to do something they haven't done in the majors in over a year or who is coming off an extended injury will almost certainly get at least a moderate to high risk in our ratings. Injuries can create risk because there is always the chance that a player does not return to being the player he was previously, no matter how seemingly minor the injury. A player misses a week with a mild hamstring strain and after he returns, constantly favors it in fear that he will re-injure himself and stops running as hard, for example. You don't see it with every injury but it does happen.
Beyond the recovery from surgery, Sizemore brings with him the additional problem that he wasn't as good as usual when he did play last year, especially in contrast to our expectations for him for the upcoming season. So, that's the short explanation of why we're tagging his 2010 forecast as very risky. If you can tolerate risk, they'll be nice numbers to have on your fantasy team if we end up even remotely close to his actual performance.
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Gregg, Torrealba
The past couple of days or so has seen speculation turn to near-reality as Kevin Gregg is reportedly about to sign a deal with the Blue Jays. Gregg, who has saved at least 23 games each of the past three years, is not being brought in to become the closer here as much as he would compete with Jason Frasor and Scott Downs for the role, a battle that may extend deep into the regular season.
So, if Gregg signs with Toronto, we'll likely be forecasting him, Frasor and Downs to get a similar number of saves, about a third of a non-contending team's saves here as there's no true standout in this equation though Gregg's experience may give him the slightest edge. Gregg is a better pitcher than he appeared to be last year, when he suffered through a fairly unlucky season with the Cubs that was inconsistent with his recent career, this as he hasn't yet celebrated his thirty-second birthday.
One other signing that looked likely this week was Yorvit Torrealba being ready to sign with San Diego. He's not being brought in to take over from Nick Hundley and like Hundley, we're not projecting much offensively, especially in this hitting environment. In fact, our previously published forecast for Hundley already reflected the belief that someone else would be brought in to join Hundley behind the plate, even though we didn't know whom.
We already were fairly down on Torrealba's chances to hit much this year and in San Diego, not unlike what we're saying about Hundley, we're going to be forecasting a very low average (think .230-ish) with maybe 4 or 5 home runs and around 25 RBI over, say, 250 at bats. In other words, we're about to forecast last year's .291 average in Colorado as a complete overachievement, this from a thirty-one year old catcher with a career .255 average who hit .246 in hitting-friendly Colorado as recently as 2008.
So, if Gregg signs with Toronto, we'll likely be forecasting him, Frasor and Downs to get a similar number of saves, about a third of a non-contending team's saves here as there's no true standout in this equation though Gregg's experience may give him the slightest edge. Gregg is a better pitcher than he appeared to be last year, when he suffered through a fairly unlucky season with the Cubs that was inconsistent with his recent career, this as he hasn't yet celebrated his thirty-second birthday.
One other signing that looked likely this week was Yorvit Torrealba being ready to sign with San Diego. He's not being brought in to take over from Nick Hundley and like Hundley, we're not projecting much offensively, especially in this hitting environment. In fact, our previously published forecast for Hundley already reflected the belief that someone else would be brought in to join Hundley behind the plate, even though we didn't know whom.
We already were fairly down on Torrealba's chances to hit much this year and in San Diego, not unlike what we're saying about Hundley, we're going to be forecasting a very low average (think .230-ish) with maybe 4 or 5 home runs and around 25 RBI over, say, 250 at bats. In other words, we're about to forecast last year's .291 average in Colorado as a complete overachievement, this from a thirty-one year old catcher with a career .255 average who hit .246 in hitting-friendly Colorado as recently as 2008.
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
If Sleepers Existed: Part 1
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Monday, February 01, 2010
Miles for Taveras
Oakland and Cincinnati just completed a deal that sent Aaron Miles (along with a player to be named later) to Cincinnati for Willy Taveras and Adam Rosales. Immediately after the deal was completed, the A's designated Taveras for assignment, meaning that he may never end up playing for Oakland, even if he clears waivers.
The deal will have little effect on our forecast for Miles and only a bit of an impact on Rosales, who will be projected to hit for slightly inferior power with his home games played in Oakland.
The key change here is what happens to Taveras. He goes from being a player previously projected to end up with about 330+ at bats and close to 25 steals as a backup with a seemingly secure bench job in Cincinnati to being someone who will now have to fight to even win a spot on a roster somewhere this spring. We will be downgrading his forecast to around 150 at bats and maybe 10-12 steals in the next edition, this unless he lands on his feet with a pretty secure role somewhere else.
The deal will have little effect on our forecast for Miles and only a bit of an impact on Rosales, who will be projected to hit for slightly inferior power with his home games played in Oakland.
The key change here is what happens to Taveras. He goes from being a player previously projected to end up with about 330+ at bats and close to 25 steals as a backup with a seemingly secure bench job in Cincinnati to being someone who will now have to fight to even win a spot on a roster somewhere this spring. We will be downgrading his forecast to around 150 at bats and maybe 10-12 steals in the next edition, this unless he lands on his feet with a pretty secure role somewhere else.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Follow Up: Edmonds
Within hours of posting today's earlier blog entry, we get further information on the Jim Edmonds signing, straight from Edmonds himself as he was quoted at the Brewers' official site. You can read the full article here but it quotes Edmonds as saying that the Brewers "didn't make (him) any promises" and so with this in mind, we'll continue to forecast Carlos Gomez for relative full-time duty. Edmonds will not be getting much of a projection in our next set, at least not initially.
This new article's information is in sharp contrast to reports that had been previously posted at several prominent websites, all of which seem to be traceable back to the same single comment made by one radio station reporter. We'll put more faith in what is posted at the Brewers' official site than any other source or speculation, at least at this stage.
This new article's information is in sharp contrast to reports that had been previously posted at several prominent websites, all of which seem to be traceable back to the same single comment made by one radio station reporter. We'll put more faith in what is posted at the Brewers' official site than any other source or speculation, at least at this stage.
Smoak, Edmonds / Carlos Gomez
At least a couple of readers were wondering about Justin Smoak, who wasn't included in the previously published projections for 2010. I will be adding him to the next forecast set to at least reflect the chance that he appears this season at some point, even if only as a September call-up.
Smoak rose through the Texas farm system rather quickly last year, hitting .328 at Double-A Frisco with 6 home runs and 29 RBI in 183 at bats and then looking much more challenged after the promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he batted .244 with 4 home runs and 23 RBI in 197 at bats. A first round draft pick in 2008, Smoak is a switch-hitter who despite last year's Triple-A slump, projects as being close to ready for the majors. The new projection won't offer him much playing time (think around 50 at bats) but in terms of ability, he forecasts out as a .260 type hitter with 15 home run and 70-75 walk skill right now, at least over a full season of big league playing time. Of course, at twenty-three, there's still much room for improvement beyond that and I expect him to eventually develop into a medium level power hitter with an excellent batting eye.
In the National League, there's a threat to one of our bargain pick forecasts as Jim Edmonds came out of retirement to sign a minor league deal with the Brewers. The challenge here is to Carlos Gomez, who had previously been projected to be the regular center fielder and for whom we were projecting a return to his former speed glory.
Minor league contracts often don't pan out and especially when dealing with players who are clearly beyond their prime, they're used as insurance policies to back up established current players or to bridge the gap between the present and the year or two before a well-regarded prospect is ready for the majors. However, immediately after this deal was signed, many online sources were reporting that Edmonds was told by the Brewers that he'll get a chance to play regularly in the outfield.
With Ryan Braun and Corey Hart already holding down the corner outfield spots, that makes center field the only position where Edmonds can really pick up a decent number of at bats and so there's the problem for Gomez. I'll be watching this situation closely as spring training gets underway but if this is true, Gomez's forecast could drop back to playing time more in line with what he saw last year. For me, it's not about whether Edmonds can contribute. In fact, I'm rather doubtful that he can and if he goes out and starts the season hitting .230 or .240 something over his first 50-100 at bats, I think that would end the experiment.
For me, the threat to Gomez isn't so much about Edmonds replacing him as much as if Edmonds really was told he would get regular playing time, it seems to certify that the Brewers are doubtful that Gomez is the guy they want playing center field on a regular basis. We'll see.
Smoak rose through the Texas farm system rather quickly last year, hitting .328 at Double-A Frisco with 6 home runs and 29 RBI in 183 at bats and then looking much more challenged after the promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he batted .244 with 4 home runs and 23 RBI in 197 at bats. A first round draft pick in 2008, Smoak is a switch-hitter who despite last year's Triple-A slump, projects as being close to ready for the majors. The new projection won't offer him much playing time (think around 50 at bats) but in terms of ability, he forecasts out as a .260 type hitter with 15 home run and 70-75 walk skill right now, at least over a full season of big league playing time. Of course, at twenty-three, there's still much room for improvement beyond that and I expect him to eventually develop into a medium level power hitter with an excellent batting eye.
In the National League, there's a threat to one of our bargain pick forecasts as Jim Edmonds came out of retirement to sign a minor league deal with the Brewers. The challenge here is to Carlos Gomez, who had previously been projected to be the regular center fielder and for whom we were projecting a return to his former speed glory.
Minor league contracts often don't pan out and especially when dealing with players who are clearly beyond their prime, they're used as insurance policies to back up established current players or to bridge the gap between the present and the year or two before a well-regarded prospect is ready for the majors. However, immediately after this deal was signed, many online sources were reporting that Edmonds was told by the Brewers that he'll get a chance to play regularly in the outfield.
With Ryan Braun and Corey Hart already holding down the corner outfield spots, that makes center field the only position where Edmonds can really pick up a decent number of at bats and so there's the problem for Gomez. I'll be watching this situation closely as spring training gets underway but if this is true, Gomez's forecast could drop back to playing time more in line with what he saw last year. For me, it's not about whether Edmonds can contribute. In fact, I'm rather doubtful that he can and if he goes out and starts the season hitting .230 or .240 something over his first 50-100 at bats, I think that would end the experiment.
For me, the threat to Gomez isn't so much about Edmonds replacing him as much as if Edmonds really was told he would get regular playing time, it seems to certify that the Brewers are doubtful that Gomez is the guy they want playing center field on a regular basis. We'll see.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Garland, Thome, Nady
Jon Garland signed with the Padres yesterday and getting to pitch half of his games in pitching-friendly PETCO will help his ERA and WHIP somewhat without offering him any improvement in wins (San Diego went 75-87 last year). We weren't projecting Garland to be particularly good so even the boost as a result of the new home park won't propel him to a much higher position on any ranking sheets. Our previous forecast, published when we didn't know where he would end up signing, had projected an ERA in the mid 4's and we're going to upgrade that to low 4's territory now, around 4.25 or so.
Jim Thome just agreed to join the Minnesota Twins and while this is a good organization for him in terms of the chance to wrap up his stellar career with a contender, it also is an environment in which he'll be challenged for regular playing time, this as the Twins have plenty of other candidates for the DH spot. We expected Thome was going to sign as a non-starter somewhere and we will continue to forecast about 250 at bats here with 10-15 home run power and about 40 RBI. If somehow he managed to force himself into the near-everyday lineup, he's still capable of topping 25 home runs but it's unlikely he'll get that much playing time.
Another player who confirmed his status as a bench guy rather than a starter is Xavier Nady, who is reportedly now finalizing a deal with the Cubs. Nady missed almost all of last season but in 2008, had a good year, hitting .305 with 25 home runs and 97 RBI, all career-highs. With the Cubs, I think he will be severely challenged for playing time and we will not be forecasting much from him, barring a major injury to one of the current outfielders already expected to be in the starting lineup.
One more reminder re: our upcoming "If Sleepers Existed" series... If you haven't already signed up for our free mailing list, today's the last day to be on it in time to get part one of this series earlier than it will appear on the site. We expect to publish part one of the essay either tomorrow or Friday and an email will go out to the free mailing list with a link to it when it goes online. For those not on the free mailing list, we'll be posting it for all to see at the site by early next week. So, if you want it first, be sure you're on the list.
Jim Thome just agreed to join the Minnesota Twins and while this is a good organization for him in terms of the chance to wrap up his stellar career with a contender, it also is an environment in which he'll be challenged for regular playing time, this as the Twins have plenty of other candidates for the DH spot. We expected Thome was going to sign as a non-starter somewhere and we will continue to forecast about 250 at bats here with 10-15 home run power and about 40 RBI. If somehow he managed to force himself into the near-everyday lineup, he's still capable of topping 25 home runs but it's unlikely he'll get that much playing time.
Another player who confirmed his status as a bench guy rather than a starter is Xavier Nady, who is reportedly now finalizing a deal with the Cubs. Nady missed almost all of last season but in 2008, had a good year, hitting .305 with 25 home runs and 97 RBI, all career-highs. With the Cubs, I think he will be severely challenged for playing time and we will not be forecasting much from him, barring a major injury to one of the current outfielders already expected to be in the starting lineup.
One more reminder re: our upcoming "If Sleepers Existed" series... If you haven't already signed up for our free mailing list, today's the last day to be on it in time to get part one of this series earlier than it will appear on the site. We expect to publish part one of the essay either tomorrow or Friday and an email will go out to the free mailing list with a link to it when it goes online. For those not on the free mailing list, we'll be posting it for all to see at the site by early next week. So, if you want it first, be sure you're on the list.
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