Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Florida Rotation

I was surprised by comments made by Larry Beinfest in the Sun Sentinel in which he stated that only Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco have secure jobs in the starting rotation as spring training gets underway.

While it doesn't really have me re-thinking my Anibal Sanchez forecast (I still fully expect Sanchez to get 25-30 starts here if he's healthy at the start of the season), it does have us reconsidering forecasts for Rick VandenHurk and Sean West, both of whom were also projected to clear the 25 start mark in our previously published set.

VandenHurk was ordinary but effective in 11 starts for the Marlins last year and Sean West was a member of the rotation for most of the year and pitched tolerably for a pitcher who had skipped Double-A and was making his big league debut season.

Of these two, I now read VandenHurk's job security as being significantly lower than previously expected and in West's case, I wasn't forecasting him to be as effective as any of the other starters here so a downgrade wouldn't change his value much.  We are currently reconsidering both forecasts as we head into our next scheduled projection set.