N. Johnson, Cust, Ankiel, Projection Season
The Nick Johnson situation is a reminder of how a single injury can quickly turn into something much bigger than it originally seemed and/or how much players can seem to be getting close to a return only to revert to square one. If you didn't already hear, it's safe to cut Johnson from your reserve list as the Nationals confirmed this week that his season is done. Just looking back in notes collected from various sources, check out some of the reports that we heard about Johnson going back all the way to when this injury first happened:
The reason I bring this up is because occasionally readers will inquire about why, when a seemingly minor injury occurs, the downgrade to the forecast is usually (but not always) for more than a 15-game missed period. There are rare exceptions such as when a club makes a retroactive DL move and is simply using the DL to give the player some additional rest but just as often, you end up with a player who misses 25+ days because he misses the 15 days from being on the DL and then another 5-10 days on a rehab assignment, if everything goes smoothly.
Anyway, the Johnson injury this year is just one I can cite that looks like this. Any sort of return from an extended absence is always a crapshoot and players can even make it back and then end up back on the DL before long (e.g. Randy Johnson). That's why readers who are apparently banking on Pedro Martinez or Bartolo Colon, for example, need to remember how these things can play out even when reports put a player on the verge of coming back.
You know, I've been wondering lately how many players there are like Jack Cust who never ended up finding a team that would give them a fair opportunity. In some ways, Cust has been the NL version of Marcus Thames, a player who has been too old by most standards to be called a prospect - twenty-eight coming into this season - and who had never been given a true chance to be a regular in a big league lineup.
So, here you have a guy who has bounced around from Arizona to Colorado, then Baltimore, then managed to actually clear waivers (translation: no one actually wanted him at a minimum salary big league contract) in early 2004, to Oakland's farm system for 2005, to San Diego for 2006 and part of 2007 and then back to Oakland. Then, the A's finally give him a chance in the majors and so far you have a player who's hit .271 with 20 home runs and 63 RBI in just 280 at bats. I love seeing stories like this.
Speaking of second chance stories, I'm going to have to bump up Rick Ankiel's playing time in the next edition of the forecasts as he keeps on hitting home runs, with four now in less than a week in the majors. I didn't remotely expect this and yet I am really enjoying watching it. I still remember reading his pitching line back after the 2000 season and being stunned at how good it was (for those who don't remember it was 175 innings, 137 hits allowed and 194 strikeouts), this all before the collapse that saw him lose complete command in what seemed like five minutes but was actually spread over about three years.
You really have to hand it to him, not only for trying to stick but for actually re-establishing himself as a "prospect" of sorts in his mid to late twenties. I will give him more playing time in the next edition of the forecasts, though his batting average still doesn't project to hold up over the long run... at least based on the data so far.
By the way, readers who haven't looked at our publishing schedule for a while should be reminded that our annual publishing season ends on September 9th. The way that makes things work out is that my final blog entry of the season will fall on Wednesday, September 5th.
One thing I have already decided to do is to extend the "Week Ahead" report beyond that September 9th publishing cut-off. Since the big league schedule is already available to us before then, with the exception of make-up games or potential postponed games, we will likely publish three "Week Ahead" reports on September 9 so readers have access to all of the schedule variables up until and including games leading into the final full week of the season, or we will continue to publish that report each Sunday.
Also, even though there are no new projection sets or any new data published after September 9, the site will remain open to subscribers, as always, until October 1. Readers who wish to print or save any data from the site will need to do so before October 1, after which time the site becomes locked for our annual winter maintenance. The free discussion forum will remain open during the playoffs and post-season.
Sep 23 2006 Johnson breaks his leg after colliding with Austin Kearns chasing a fly ball.
Sep 24 2006 Johnson undergoes surgery, after which it's reported he's expected to be ready for spring training.
Nov 2006 Johnson's recovery is going slowly and he decides to undergo additional surgery.
Jan 2007 Still limping - Reports are now that Johnson will probably miss the "first month" of the season.
Feb 13 2007 Cleared to resume baseball activities, prognosis is still that he'll be ready about a month into the season.
Feb 16 2007 Revised ETA of return is now June.
May 2007 Hitting off a tee, minor fielding practice.
June 2007 Takes batting practice, so-called "significant progress" has been made as published at the Nationals' official website.
July 6 2007 Still hurting, additional tests during the All Star break.
August 2 2007 Still having problems running.
August 16 2007 Nationals confirm Johnson needs more surgery and will not return this year.
When you see things listed like this all at once, it's easy to see how players returning from injury can bait us, or at least the reports can anyway. In fact, reading the above kind of reminded me of Esteban Loaiza's story this season as I can't count the number of times I've read that Loaiza was "one more rehab start" away from returning and here we are in August and he's finally about to make his return.The reason I bring this up is because occasionally readers will inquire about why, when a seemingly minor injury occurs, the downgrade to the forecast is usually (but not always) for more than a 15-game missed period. There are rare exceptions such as when a club makes a retroactive DL move and is simply using the DL to give the player some additional rest but just as often, you end up with a player who misses 25+ days because he misses the 15 days from being on the DL and then another 5-10 days on a rehab assignment, if everything goes smoothly.
Anyway, the Johnson injury this year is just one I can cite that looks like this. Any sort of return from an extended absence is always a crapshoot and players can even make it back and then end up back on the DL before long (e.g. Randy Johnson). That's why readers who are apparently banking on Pedro Martinez or Bartolo Colon, for example, need to remember how these things can play out even when reports put a player on the verge of coming back.
You know, I've been wondering lately how many players there are like Jack Cust who never ended up finding a team that would give them a fair opportunity. In some ways, Cust has been the NL version of Marcus Thames, a player who has been too old by most standards to be called a prospect - twenty-eight coming into this season - and who had never been given a true chance to be a regular in a big league lineup.
So, here you have a guy who has bounced around from Arizona to Colorado, then Baltimore, then managed to actually clear waivers (translation: no one actually wanted him at a minimum salary big league contract) in early 2004, to Oakland's farm system for 2005, to San Diego for 2006 and part of 2007 and then back to Oakland. Then, the A's finally give him a chance in the majors and so far you have a player who's hit .271 with 20 home runs and 63 RBI in just 280 at bats. I love seeing stories like this.
Speaking of second chance stories, I'm going to have to bump up Rick Ankiel's playing time in the next edition of the forecasts as he keeps on hitting home runs, with four now in less than a week in the majors. I didn't remotely expect this and yet I am really enjoying watching it. I still remember reading his pitching line back after the 2000 season and being stunned at how good it was (for those who don't remember it was 175 innings, 137 hits allowed and 194 strikeouts), this all before the collapse that saw him lose complete command in what seemed like five minutes but was actually spread over about three years.
You really have to hand it to him, not only for trying to stick but for actually re-establishing himself as a "prospect" of sorts in his mid to late twenties. I will give him more playing time in the next edition of the forecasts, though his batting average still doesn't project to hold up over the long run... at least based on the data so far.
By the way, readers who haven't looked at our publishing schedule for a while should be reminded that our annual publishing season ends on September 9th. The way that makes things work out is that my final blog entry of the season will fall on Wednesday, September 5th.
One thing I have already decided to do is to extend the "Week Ahead" report beyond that September 9th publishing cut-off. Since the big league schedule is already available to us before then, with the exception of make-up games or potential postponed games, we will likely publish three "Week Ahead" reports on September 9 so readers have access to all of the schedule variables up until and including games leading into the final full week of the season, or we will continue to publish that report each Sunday.
Also, even though there are no new projection sets or any new data published after September 9, the site will remain open to subscribers, as always, until October 1. Readers who wish to print or save any data from the site will need to do so before October 1, after which time the site becomes locked for our annual winter maintenance. The free discussion forum will remain open during the playoffs and post-season.
posted by David Luciani at
1:58 PM
