BASEBALL NOTEBOOK BLOG

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Aug 31 Deadline, Pedro, Prior, Chacin, SD's Young

At least one reader apparently thought that August 31st is the waiver deadline for trading in big league baseball and it's important that readers understand that trades can still happen in baseball after August 31st. The reason most of us think of August 31st as the waiver deadline is because clubs need to have acquired players before September 1st if that player is to be eligible to appear in the post-season for that team. However, there have been instances in history of teams picking up a player even after September 1 if they felt that the player could help them make the post-season.

There is one thing that can happen after August 31st that can frustrate fantasy GMs to no end. That is, there are far fewer players placed on the disabled list in September even when they're hurt than normally, at least percentage-wise. That's because there's no real advantage to placing a player on the DL because of the expanded forty man roster. So, be warned that just because a player is active on his team's roster doesn't mean he's healthy and readers are strongly encouraged to keep an eye on each of their players to be sure they're playing regularly after rosters expand.

Reports are that Pedro Martinez is getting close but yesterday, there was talk that he does need at least one more rehab start in the minors. That means he's probably still about a week away from actually pitching for the Mets if everything goes well. I've done my best to continue publishing a forecast for Pedro but please be aware that when you have a pitcher who's been out as long as he is, there's a lot of guesswork in such a projection and the margin of error is undoubtedly wider than when you're dealing with a pitcher who was throwing in the majors last week.

Mark Prior spoke out this past week about his efforts to return to pitching by Opening Day next season. As I said earlier in the year, Prior had been one of those most popular names in emails to my inbox, which has now substantially subsided since he's been confirmed out. I suspect with him that because he was so heavily hyped when he was a rookie and because he delivered such good results for two or three years, that readers likely had a lot invested in him to land him. What's important to keep in mind is that even if Prior is healthy on Opening Day 2008, he will be coming off a lost year (2007), preceded by a terrible and injury-shortened year (2006), preceded by a good but still not Cy Young quality season in 2005. All that adds up to him remaining a high risk pitcher if you're planning on reserving a keeper spot for him. He remains a big name and so releasing him back into the free agent pool carries its risks but I can tell you that he won't be making any keeper list on any team of mine heading into next season. Because of his talent potential, I do root for him to do well regardless.

In case you didn't hear, Gustavo Chacin's season is now officially over. For whatever reason, I still have readers who wonder about him even though he's never been on our fantasy radar because of poor projected performance. Chacin was now set to undergo surgery on his shoulder to see if they can determine what his problem has been and at least for the rest of the season, we now know he won't be back.

One guy who's become important to my own fantasy teams is San Diego pitcher Chris Young, whose next start date remains uncertain. The good news is that it doesn't appear that the injury he's been suffering through is serious enough to keep him out of action too long and there was even talk yesterday that he could make a start this week.

On that note, let me remind readers of the importance of the real-life standings in baseball and their potential impact on your fantasy team. If Chris Young were pitching for the Giants or Marlins, I suspect that he'd be getting just a bit extra amount of rest than he might get with San Diego. It's not that I think the Padres are pushing him and in fact, they've been good this year about how they have handled several players, including Young. It's that they're only two games back as I write this note and they have no idea whether one start from Young could be the difference between playing golf or baseball in early October.

This is crucial to remember if you're in leagues that even involve shuffling players in and out of an active roster on a weekly basis let alone the more obvious daily basis. That is, you must consider the status of each and every player on your roster in the context of the team he plays for and what that team is trying to accomplish in September.

For example, if you're dealing with a team that's looking to the future, it's possible that a veteran starter would get more rest in September than he might if he were playing on a contender. Starting pitchers on non-contending teams often end up with full rest whereas contending teams will often skip the fifth starter wherever possible in September and in rare occasions in this era, skip the fourth starter too. So, keep in mind that when you stare at your fantasy standings, the real standings in baseball at this time of year can be just as important to your fantasy team's chances of success.