One More Josh Johnson Update, Dice-K vs. Gordon, Hamilton
We now get the word that Josh Johnson will indeed miss at least two months due to a nerve problem. You can read more complete information at the Marlins' official site, published today. In short, if you have Johnson on your team and haven't already made plans to replace him, well you better do so now.
A reader said that he is in a 6x6 keeper league and has the first pick in the upcoming draft. He said that another owner has offered him a 5th round pick and Alex Gordon for the first pick in the draft, presumably to draft Daisuke Matsuzaka. He says he already has Chad Tracy at third base and wonders if he should make the deal.
Well, this is a case where you'll have to decide how much weight to put into long-term performance because a quick glance at the latest Alex Gordon projection shows that at least I'm not instantly projecting him to be Babe Ruth, as many expect he will be. I've forecasted 434 at bats, a .264 average, 13 home runs, 66 runs scored, 53 RBI and 12 steals. Compare that to the projection for Chad Tracy of 578 at bats, a .290 projected average, 27 home runs, 87 runs scored, 92 RBI and 5 steals and you can see why, if we're looking only at 2007, I'd actually rather have Tracy than Gordon.
Gordon is a case where you have a prospect who's deservingly ranked very high but as always, readers need to be reminded that it's rare (but not impossible) for prospects to instantly achieve their potential upon arriving in the majors. Remember too that while Gordon appears to have a lock on the Opening Day third base job, he's one extended slump away from a return to the minors as the Royals don't want to ruin him and are being smart about how they handle him.
To me, the first pick overall is worth much more than Alex Gordon because you have to ask yourself this question: If Gordon were the one out there available, would you take him with your first pick? If not, then it's clear that as exciting as it can be to add one of the most talked about prospects in baseball, he's probably not worthy of being a first rounder if your sights are set securely on 2007 and if he's being compared to the entire current major league population.
On another matter, up until now, I've reserved a forecast for Josh Hamilton because we hadn't seen him in action in a few years and didn't want to make a "best guess" on what his skills would be like because he was nothing more than a Rule 5 pick. Well, that has to change now because Hamilton is looking likely to crack the Cincinnati roster and I will indeed make that "guess" in the next edition of the forecasts.
The bad news for all those Hamilton-lovers out there is that based on all the info I can collect about him (which is limited), I will be forecasting a terrible batting average - think sub-.200 - with some decent power and occasional speed. Remember this about him: Yes, he was once considered a top prospect but he's now twenty-five years old, has missed about four years of action that should have been used as development time and the last time we did see him, he was hitting .303 at Single-A (save for the .260 average he picked up in just 50 at bats with the low Single-A Hudson-Valley short season team last year). Hitting .303 at Single-A is actually not something that translates to major league skill unless the development continues naturally along the minor league ladder. Unlike most hitters, who naturally improve with age, the improvement has to go in hand with experience against actual competition - it's not just automatic that the physical change a player undergoes as he gets older provides him with extra skill, though power can develop naturally.
I am aware that he started by hitting .500 in his first 12 spring at bats but I just can't use that alone as evidence that he's a significantly improved player than the one we last saw in real action in 2002. My forecast will be an entirely unexciting one for all those people who still regard his name with the same shine that a Gordon or Delmon Young has in the current prospect population. I'll be very surprised if Hamilton is ready for the majors right now after such a long layoff.
A reader said that he is in a 6x6 keeper league and has the first pick in the upcoming draft. He said that another owner has offered him a 5th round pick and Alex Gordon for the first pick in the draft, presumably to draft Daisuke Matsuzaka. He says he already has Chad Tracy at third base and wonders if he should make the deal.
Well, this is a case where you'll have to decide how much weight to put into long-term performance because a quick glance at the latest Alex Gordon projection shows that at least I'm not instantly projecting him to be Babe Ruth, as many expect he will be. I've forecasted 434 at bats, a .264 average, 13 home runs, 66 runs scored, 53 RBI and 12 steals. Compare that to the projection for Chad Tracy of 578 at bats, a .290 projected average, 27 home runs, 87 runs scored, 92 RBI and 5 steals and you can see why, if we're looking only at 2007, I'd actually rather have Tracy than Gordon.
Gordon is a case where you have a prospect who's deservingly ranked very high but as always, readers need to be reminded that it's rare (but not impossible) for prospects to instantly achieve their potential upon arriving in the majors. Remember too that while Gordon appears to have a lock on the Opening Day third base job, he's one extended slump away from a return to the minors as the Royals don't want to ruin him and are being smart about how they handle him.
To me, the first pick overall is worth much more than Alex Gordon because you have to ask yourself this question: If Gordon were the one out there available, would you take him with your first pick? If not, then it's clear that as exciting as it can be to add one of the most talked about prospects in baseball, he's probably not worthy of being a first rounder if your sights are set securely on 2007 and if he's being compared to the entire current major league population.
On another matter, up until now, I've reserved a forecast for Josh Hamilton because we hadn't seen him in action in a few years and didn't want to make a "best guess" on what his skills would be like because he was nothing more than a Rule 5 pick. Well, that has to change now because Hamilton is looking likely to crack the Cincinnati roster and I will indeed make that "guess" in the next edition of the forecasts.
The bad news for all those Hamilton-lovers out there is that based on all the info I can collect about him (which is limited), I will be forecasting a terrible batting average - think sub-.200 - with some decent power and occasional speed. Remember this about him: Yes, he was once considered a top prospect but he's now twenty-five years old, has missed about four years of action that should have been used as development time and the last time we did see him, he was hitting .303 at Single-A (save for the .260 average he picked up in just 50 at bats with the low Single-A Hudson-Valley short season team last year). Hitting .303 at Single-A is actually not something that translates to major league skill unless the development continues naturally along the minor league ladder. Unlike most hitters, who naturally improve with age, the improvement has to go in hand with experience against actual competition - it's not just automatic that the physical change a player undergoes as he gets older provides him with extra skill, though power can develop naturally.
I am aware that he started by hitting .500 in his first 12 spring at bats but I just can't use that alone as evidence that he's a significantly improved player than the one we last saw in real action in 2002. My forecast will be an entirely unexciting one for all those people who still regard his name with the same shine that a Gordon or Delmon Young has in the current prospect population. I'll be very surprised if Hamilton is ready for the majors right now after such a long layoff.
posted by David Luciani at
3:51 PM
